While higher exports from the US to China under the Phase One Agreement have added volumes for tanker and dry bulk shipping, containerised imports to the US have shifted from China to other countries in the region. Despite an increase in exports, the commitments made in the Phase One Agreement are a long way off and unlikely to be met, the consequences of which have not clearly been laid out. In the first seven months of 2021, the US trade balance with China has worsened compared with the same period in 2020, from a deficit of USD 162.8 billion to a deficit of USD 187.2 billion. However, the first seven months of 2020 were severely impacted by the pandemic, creating an artificially low deficit. Compared with 2019, the trade balance has in fact improved in the first seven months of this year, aided by higher valued exports. US exports in value to China have risen 34.7% in the first seven months of 2021 compared to 2019, and at USD 72.4 billion, exports this year are 14.1% higher than in the same period of 2017, before trade war tariffs were implemented. While total imports measured in value from China are also up from 2019 (+4.0%), the total value of imports is down 1.2% in the first seven months of this year compared to the same period in 2017 (2017 being the final pre-trade war year).